2017: How Andrew Scheer Won

2017: How Andrew Scheer Won

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn


Here are the official round-by-round results from the May 2017 leadership vote, showing the candidates’ national point share across all 338 federal ridings:

ROUND 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Scheer 21.82 21.85 21.97 22.06 22.17 22.48 22.97 23.85 26.03 28.28 30.28 38.36 50.95
Bernier 28.89 29.06 29.16 29.36 29.93 30.20 30.51 31.24 31.69 34.23 36.57 40.38 49.05
O’Toole 10.65 10.68 10.75 10.86 10.97 11.15 11.32 12.37 12.79 14.64 18.15 21.26
Trost 8.35 8.36 8.37 8.39 8.41 8.44 8.47 8.53 12.84 13.71 14.30
Chong 7.55 7.61 7.64 7.71 7.75 7.89 7.97 8.60 8.70 9.14
Leitch 7.00 7.03 7.05 7.09 7.19 7.26 7.45 7.74 7.95
Lemieux 7.38 7.39 7.41 7.43 7.45 7.51 7.58 7.67
Raitt 3.34 3.37 3.45 3.52 3.58 3.68 3.74
Blaney 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.30 1.33 1.39
Alexander 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.21 1.23
O’Leary 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.09
Peterson 0.65 0.66 0.67
Saxton 0.50 0.51
Obhrai 0.41

 

Those numbers produced this moment, live on CPAC, as Andrew Scheer defeated Maxime Bernier in the 13th round to become the second leader of the Conservative Party of Canada:

 


MAPPING THE CAMPAIGN

Here’s how Andrew Scheer’s final-round support came from each riding, producing the 17222.20 points (out of 33,800) that led to victory:

Here’s who took the most points in each riding between Scheer and Bernier:

 


SUPPORT FOR SCHEER

Scheer won the most points in 175 ridings, while Bernier won 158.

Five ridings were an exact 50-50 tie: Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke, B.C., Newmarket–Aurora, Ont., Abitibi–Baie-James–Nunavik–Eeyou, Que., Montarville, Que., and Repentigny, Que.

Scheer’s top 10 ridings in the final round:

Regina–Qu’Appelle, SK 89.54
Richmond–Arthabaska, QC 89.06
Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques, QC 87.65
Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC 85.90
Lac-Saint-Jean, QC 82.17
Montmagny–L’Islet–Kamouraska–Rivière-du-Loup, QC 82.13
Chilliwack–Hope, BC 81.64
Shefford, QC 81.25
Egmont, PEI 81.00
Mégantic–L’Érable, QC 80.37

 

Scheer’s bottom 10 results:

Manicouagan, QC 12.12
Beauport–Limoilou, QC 13.40
Bourassa, QC 14.29
Thérèse-De Blainville, QC 15.09
Alfred-Pellan, QC 15.79
Gatineau, QC 16.26
Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC 16.46
Honoré-Mercier, QC 17.65
Longueuil–Saint-Hubert, QC 20.00
Terrebonne, QC 20.00

More than 259,000 people were eligible to vote.

The Conservative Party of Canada had 259,010 paid members as of Mar. 28, 2017 — the cutoff date for voting eligibility.

That represented a gain of over 150,000 people since the beginning of 2017, as leadership candidates sought to capitalize on the one-member one-vote system for choosing Stephen Harper’s replacement.

About 32 per cent of riding associations had more than 1,000 members, according to the party.

Here was the membership breakdown by province and territory:

ONTARIO  44.3%
ALBERTA  22.9%
BRITISH COLUMBIA  13.4%
QUEBEC  6.3%
SASKATCHEWAN  5.0%
MANITOBA  3.7%
NOVA SCOTIA  1.8%
NEW BRUNSWICK  1.4%
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR  0.4%
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND  0.4%
YUKON  0.2%
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES  0.1%
NUNAVUT  0.02%

 

Alberta and Ontario had a larger share of the party membership compared to these provinces’ overall share of Canada’s population (11.6 and 38.3 per cent respectively, according to the 2016 Census). Conversely, Quebec’s share was far less than its national total (23.2 per cent).

Even though the membership numbers varied by province, all 338 ridings carried equal weight in determining the winner, regardless of the number of votes.

-Andrew Thomson