Ridings to Watch: Cumberland–Colchester and Central Nova NS

Ridings to Watch: Cumberland–Colchester and Central Nova NS


WATCH ABOVE: CPAC’s Martin Stringer examines the race in two pivotal Nova Scotia ridings

Cumberland–Colchester and the neighbouring Central Nova were won by Liberals in 2015. Both are resource dependent and in the bottom third of Canada’s ridings when ranking average annual income.

The Conservatives are banking on the popularity of country music star George Canyon to unseat the incumbent Sean Fraser in Central Nova. Betsy MacDonald (NDP) and Barry Randle (Green) are also running.

In adjacent Cumberland–Colchester, where Liberal Bill Casey has retired, the party has recruited former NDP MLA Lenore Zann. Scott Armstrong, the former Conservative MP for the riding, is making an attempt to retake his old seat. Larry Duchesne is the New Democrat and Jason Blanch is the Green party candidate.

 
CUMBERLAND–COLCHESTER IN 2015:

Bill Casey (Liberal) won with 63.7% support — and a 37.3% margin of victory (17,270 votes) over Conservative runner-up Scott Armstrong.

Cumberland–Colchester was the 295th closest race out of all 338 ridings.

Voter turnout was 71%.

CUMBERLAND–COLCHESTER IN NUMBERS (CENSUS 2016)

SIZE: 7,906.0 km2

POPULATION: 80,590 people in 2016: a change of -2.1% from 2011. The average age is 45.2, with 14.4% age 14 and under and 23% 65 and older.

98.3% are Canadian citizens. 3.6% are immigrants. 4.4% indicated Aboriginal identity. 3.1% are visible minorities. 4.3% are 1st generation Canadians. 6.3% are 2nd generation. 89.4% are 3rd generation and older.

HOUSING: The average home value in 2016 was $166,895. Renters paid an average of $744 per month, with 14.9% in subsidized housing. 71.7% of dwellings are single-detached houses; 1.3% are condos. 3.9% of all homes were built between 2011 and 2016.

INCOME: Median total income in 2015 was $28,911. 20.4% of people were classified as low-income (after tax) — 26.5% of children and 21.9% of seniors.

IDENTITY: Top reported ethnic origins are Canadian: 37340 / Scottish: 26245 / English: 25035 / Irish: 16440 / French: 10705

IMMIGRATION: United Kingdom, United States, Netherlands, Germany, Philippines are the top birth origins for immigrants. United Kingdom is the top origin for recent immigrants (2011 to 2016).

LANGUAGE: German, Spanish, Dutch, Mi’kmaq, and Arabic are the most common non-official languages. Official Mother Tongues: 96.58% English and 1.08% French.

EDUCATION: 22.7% have no degree, diploma, or certificate. 14% have a university bachelor’s degree or above.


 
CENTRAL NOVA IN 2015:

Sean Fraser (Liberal) won with 58.5% support — and a 32.7% margin of victory (14,491 votes) over Conservative runner-up Fred DeLorey.

Central Nova was the 274th closest race out of all 338 ridings

Voter turnout was 73.4%

CENTRAL NOVA IN NUMBERS (CENSUS 2016):

SIZE: 9,307.8 km2

POPULATION: 71,962 people in 2016: a change of -3.5% from 2011. The average age is 45.2, with 14.4% age 14 and under and 22.8% 65 and older.

98.6% are Canadian citizens. 3.5% are immigrants. 4.2% indicated Aboriginal identity. 3% are visible minorities. 4.1% are 1st generation Canadians. 5.7% are 2nd generation. 90.1% are 3rd generation and older.

HOUSING: The average home value in 2016 was $182,440. Renters paid an average of $745 per month, with 16.6% in subsidized housing. 77.0% of dwellings are single-detached houses; 1.3% are condos. 4.6% of all homes were built between 2011 and 2016.

INCOME: Median total income in 2015 was $31,021. 17.5% of people were classified as low-income (after tax) — 22.3% of children and 19.2% of seniors.

IDENTITY: Top reported ethnic origins are Scottish: 31065 / Canadian: 30965 / English: 19130 / Irish: 15585 / French: 11175

IMMIGRATION: United Kingdom, United States, Netherlands, Philippines, Germany are the top birth origins for immigrants. Philippines is the top origin for recent immigrants (2011 to 2016).

LANGUAGE: German, Spanish, Dutch, Mi’kmaq, and Scottish Gaelic are the most common non-official languages. Official Mother Tongues: 96.25% English and 1.1% French.

EDUCATION: 22% have no degree, diploma, or certificate. 15.8% have a university bachelor’s degree or above.

-Compiled by Andrew Thomson